Advanced nodes (5/4/3/2nm) will grow to account for nearly 50% of the smartphone system-on-chip (SoC) shipments in 2025, according to Counterpoint Technology Market Research’s latest Global Smartphone AP-SoC Shipment Forecast by Node.

Smartphone SoCs are rapidly shifting from mature to advanced nodes across most price tiers, boosting performance, power efficiency, as well as enabling on-device GenAI, better gaming, and improved thermal management.

Advanced nodes allow OEMs to integrate more powerful CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs, supporting richer AI experiences. With SoC vendors moving from 5nm to 4nm, and now to 3nm and 2nm by 2026, transistor density and power efficiency continue to improve. As a result, semiconductor content and ASPs are rising, especially in flagship AP-SoCs. This will drive higher revenues from advanced nodes, which are expected to account more than 80% of smartphone SoC revenues in 2025.

Qualcomm to lead adoption of advanced nodes

“A big winner here is Qualcomm, which benefits most from the smartphone SoC transition to advanced nodes,” said Senior analyst Shivani Parashar. “We’re expecting it to capture almost 40% shipment share and post 28% year-on-year (YoY) growth in 2025, surpassing Apple to reach the top spot.”

Growth is fueled by the shift of mid-tier 5G SoCs to 5/4nm for better performance and the ramp-up of flagship 3nm SoCs. Qualcomm also stands to gain as it has limited exposure to 4G, while most of its entry- and mid-tier 5G SoCs are migrating to 5/4nm nodes.

MediaTek’s advanced node shipments will rise by 69% YoY in 2025, driven by the migration of its mid-tier portfolio to 5/4nm, increasing its share in advanced node shipment in 2025. However, nearly half of MediaTek’s shipments remain 4G, making LTE migration to 5/4nm commercially unviable, though many have already moved from above 8nm to 6/7nm. The shift of mainstream 5G SoCs to 5/4nm will drive its next phase of growth.

The migration of AP-SoCs to advanced nodes is leading to an increase in semis content as these are required for enhanced CPU, GPU, and NPU performance to support on-device GenAI capability. Combined with increasing wafer costs and lower yields for advanced nodes, we’ll see rising ASPS on this trend.

“This shift to advanced nodes will be positive across the industry, with most major vendors seeing material increases to revenues – in particular for Quaclomm and Mediatek,” Prashar added.

TSMC to dominate the advanced nodes SoC fabrication

On the manufacturing side, TSMC will remain the leading foundry for fabricating SP-SoCs based on advanced nodes, and its shipments will increase by 27% YoY in 2025. All the leading vendors will be working with TSMC for their advanced node AP-SoC.

“TSMC will account for more than three-fourths of the advanced node smartphone SoC shipments share in 2025,” said Analyst Akash Jatwala.

In 2026, both TSMC and Samsung Foundry will start mass production of smartphone SoCs based on 2nm nodes, and all the leading players will start adopting it for their next-generation flagship SoCs. TSMC will continue to increase its dominance in manufacturing AP-SoCs based on advanced nodes in the coming period, as Samsung Foundry is facing yield rate issue.

Outlook

The share of advanced nodes in total smartphone SoC shipments will increase to 60% in 2026, driven by node migration across most price tiers, especially in the mainstream segment, from mature nodes to 5/4nm. As well, the mass production of 2nm and increasing ramp-up of 3nm nodes will add to advanced node penetration increases.

By: DocMemory
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