Friday, September 24, 2021
PC DRAM is expected to drop 5-10% as notebook production of is expected to decline in 4Q21, propelling the sufficiency ratio of PC DRAM to 1.38%. The current spot prices of PC DRAM modules are far lower than their contract prices for 3Q21.
Server DRAM ASPs are expected to decline by 0-5% Q4 on Q3 due to high inventory at cloud service providers in North America and China which currently carry more than eight weeks’ worth of server DRAM inventory, with some carrying more than 10 weeks’ worth of inventory having procured massive amounts of server DRAM in the previous two quarters to avoid shipment issues.
Q4 mobile DRAM prices are expected to remain relative unchanged from 3Q21 levels despite a possible price drop ahead of time at the end of the year.
Q4 graphics DRAM contract prices are expected to decline by 0-5% QoQ due to excess supply.
Market demand for discrete graphics cards and notebook graphics cards still remains due to the stable market for commercial notebooks and the resurgent cryptocurrency mining market.
However, there are issues with the availability of peripheral graphics card components such as driver ICs and PMICs.
Demand for graphics DRAM will unlikely see a resurgence before the end of 2021. The three major DRAM suppliers are primarily focused on GDDR6 for their current graphics DRAM production.
A 5-10% Q4 q-o-q decline for DDR4 Consumer DRAM is expected as procurement activities decelerate following the end of lockdowns.
DDR3 Consumer DRAM prices will also undergo an overall decline, particularly for 4Gb chips. DDR3 consumer DRAM prices are expected to decline by 3-8% QoQ in 4Q21.
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